The Trap of Optimism
NHL Internet Prognostication Revealed!
Being an Edmonton Oilers fan, I'd like to predict a playoff berth for my "new and improved" team this year. But is that realistic? Why, for sports fans, does the optimism trump everything else before the real games get played? Do you ever wonder why internet sports fans always predict their own team to finish a slice better than an objective observer? Well, it's no mystery to this amateur expert. But the truth may surprise you, as it has less to do with bias and homerism than you think.
Being an Edmonton Oilers fan, it would be really easy for me to say "The Oilers will surprise a lot of people this year; they're going to be pretty good" and get away with it.....so I'll just get started. The Oilers will surprise a lot of people this year; they're going to be pretty good. Now, you're likely asking yourself, "what's this blatant homer on about?", but it really isn't homerism. It's the familiarity with my home team affecting my perception. This is why people always pick their own team to do "better than folks expect". It's because they know that team far better than all the other teams.
Being an Edmonton Oilers fan, I follow the progress of the players who Edmonton has the rights to. So, therefore, I probably know more about those players and their abilities and growth than, say, a New York Rangers fan, or some Toronto hockey writer. But by consequence, I likely know far less about the players on the training camp roster of the New York Rangers or Toronto Maple Leafs. And since I see young players on the Oilers camp roster like Sam Gagner, Kyle Brodziak, and Robert Nilsson, and perhaps like what I see, I will fall into the trap of forgetting that other teams have young guns who are impressing at their camps as well. And for every Oilers veteran who has come to camp "in the best shape of my career" and "more focused on hockey now" there is an exact same story in every other NHL training camp. But, being an Edmonton Oilers fan, I don't necessarily see or hear those stories, because I'm pre-occupied with my team. And so I fall into the trap of perceiving that aside from my own team, everything else remains constant. But it doesn't. And that's why predictions from both fans and media alike rarely match up with the final result. Fans are overexposed to their own team, and media are underexposed to every team.
Being an Edmonton Oilers fan, I'm pretty happy with the players that my GM has secured in the offseason. I'm pumped about these young guns that look like they might step up and make an impact in the big league. I'm stoked that Oiler veterans have come to camp in shape and are focused. I'm also very similar to most every hockey fan in most every hockey market. I guess that's part of the fun. Let's get the games going already!
Oh...and by the way...the Oilers will win the Stanley Cup. It has to happen. You'd agree with me if you saw these players in camp.
Being an Edmonton Oilers fan, I'd like to predict a playoff berth for my "new and improved" team this year. But is that realistic? Why, for sports fans, does the optimism trump everything else before the real games get played? Do you ever wonder why internet sports fans always predict their own team to finish a slice better than an objective observer? Well, it's no mystery to this amateur expert. But the truth may surprise you, as it has less to do with bias and homerism than you think.
Being an Edmonton Oilers fan, it would be really easy for me to say "The Oilers will surprise a lot of people this year; they're going to be pretty good" and get away with it.....so I'll just get started. The Oilers will surprise a lot of people this year; they're going to be pretty good. Now, you're likely asking yourself, "what's this blatant homer on about?", but it really isn't homerism. It's the familiarity with my home team affecting my perception. This is why people always pick their own team to do "better than folks expect". It's because they know that team far better than all the other teams.
Being an Edmonton Oilers fan, I follow the progress of the players who Edmonton has the rights to. So, therefore, I probably know more about those players and their abilities and growth than, say, a New York Rangers fan, or some Toronto hockey writer. But by consequence, I likely know far less about the players on the training camp roster of the New York Rangers or Toronto Maple Leafs. And since I see young players on the Oilers camp roster like Sam Gagner, Kyle Brodziak, and Robert Nilsson, and perhaps like what I see, I will fall into the trap of forgetting that other teams have young guns who are impressing at their camps as well. And for every Oilers veteran who has come to camp "in the best shape of my career" and "more focused on hockey now" there is an exact same story in every other NHL training camp. But, being an Edmonton Oilers fan, I don't necessarily see or hear those stories, because I'm pre-occupied with my team. And so I fall into the trap of perceiving that aside from my own team, everything else remains constant. But it doesn't. And that's why predictions from both fans and media alike rarely match up with the final result. Fans are overexposed to their own team, and media are underexposed to every team.
Being an Edmonton Oilers fan, I'm pretty happy with the players that my GM has secured in the offseason. I'm pumped about these young guns that look like they might step up and make an impact in the big league. I'm stoked that Oiler veterans have come to camp in shape and are focused. I'm also very similar to most every hockey fan in most every hockey market. I guess that's part of the fun. Let's get the games going already!
Oh...and by the way...the Oilers will win the Stanley Cup. It has to happen. You'd agree with me if you saw these players in camp.
posted by Deathsdoorstep at
9:45 a.m.
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