Friday, August 31, 2007

Think Your Hockey Team Has No Chance? Think Again!

Why The NHL Has It Right, and Is Moving In The Right Direction

When it comes to sports, everybody has a little kid inside them. We all dream of that championship for the team we cheer for. In hockey, thankfully, the possibility of glory exists for fans of any team. Since everybody has the same spending limit, and everybody can spend to that limit without breaking the team, it all comes down to asset management. The same is true with the National Football League. How you manage your assets within the confines of strict financial parameters determines how you will fare. This bodes well for parity and competition. In these leagues, the most important player is not on the ice, but in the head office: the GM. It’s good news for fans, who can realistically envision their team winning a championship at some point in their lifetime. However, in some leagues and sports, winning a championship seems to require some sort of magical intervention beyond the human realm, unless you are part of an elite few.

Take a look at some leagues and sports where players, managers and executives haven’t bothered to properly address the need for real financial rules. Major League Baseball for example, has a problem with parity in revenue and spending. While this doesn’t always guarantee championships for the big spenders, it certainly puts the odds in their favour, especially when you consider how few teams actually make the playoffs. The final 2006 payroll of the New York Yankees was $190 Million. Tampa Bay spent $24 Million. In the last 10 years, the Yankees have appeared in the World Series 5 times, winning 3 times. The 2nd biggest spending team, the Boston Red Sox, have appeared in the ALCS 3 times in the last 10 years. In the past 10 years the St. Louis Cardinals have been in the top 10 in spending almost every year, falling to 11th in 2006. They’ve hit the NLCS 5 times in the last 10 years.

Of course, there will be the status quo defenders who point to the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks or the 2003 Calgary Flames to argue that the exception is somehow the rule. But the results prove that in non-restricted leagues the scales tip in the direction of the big spenders. There are sometimes exceptions, but that’s exactly what they are. Exceptions. Not rules. And in the end it makes for a less entertaining league. Baseball itself has other issues, like the lack of playoff teams, which results in the season being over for half the teams halfway into the campaign. But, that’s another discussion.

Let us move on to the biggest offender on the planet: football. No, not the NFL or the CFL. I mean soccer. The biggest and most competitive leagues in the world are in Europe. South American countries produce many great players, but eventually they all end up in playing for European clubs because that’s where the money is.

Think your hockey team got screwed in its last trade? Well in Europe, labour and contract laws greatly restrict the trading of players. So, instead of the headaches, players are sold. So the teams have to buy players, and then come to personal terms with them separately. Contracts are not traded. Players are sold, new contracts are made.

Take the former European player of the year, Andriy Shevchenko. His transfer fee from AC Milan to Chelsea this past year was 31.8 Million Pounds, approximately $60 Million CDN. The player’s wages are paid on top of that. Think your hockey team could spend like that? Scottish side Hearts just sold their goalkeeper to Sunderland for a reported 9 Million Pounds, almost $20 million CDN. That’s the biggest fee ever for a keeper. But the biggest fee for any player in history came in 2001 when Zidane went from Juventus to Real Madrid for 46 Million Pounds. That’s almost $90 Million CDN!

And let’s look at the results. In the last 15 years, the English Premiership has been won by exactly 4 teams, with Manchester United winning a staggering 8 times. Chelsea has won twice. Arsenal 3 times. Blackburn Rovers (the exception we talked about earlier) have won once, back in 1995.

In Spain, one of the 3 biggest leagues in the world, 7 teams have won the title in the last 30 years! In the last 10 Barcelona have won 4 times, as have Real Madrid. In Italy, the title switches back and forth between Juventus, Internazionale, and AC Milan with the occasional exception. It has been since 1985 since any side in Scotland not named Rangers or Celtic won the title.

The lack of competitions in domestic leagues is somewhat mitigated by the fact that in any one season there is more than one piece of silverware to win. In addition to the league, there is the domestic Cup as well as UEFA Club competitions: the UEFA Cup and the prestigious Champions League. But even then, the same names keep coming up. The past 10 Champions League competitions have seen AC Milan win twice, Barcelona win 3 times, and Real Madrid win 3 times. The extra revenue from a deep Champions League campaign (10 Million Pounds just to reach the 32 team group stages) can fund a club’s ambitions. Large European clubs that are outside of England tend to rely on it to fund their transfers. But it’s a cyclical problem.

There is a distinct correlation between money and championships. Managers still have to buy the right players, that is true. But for teams like Manchester United and Real Madrid, money is really no object. Both teams generate revenues through merchandise, television, ticket sales, and advertising that teams on the middle and lower end of the table simply cannot match. European football’s finances are so out of control that player transfers are actually referred to as a market that can rise, fall, and crash. Some teams’ survival depends on raising talent through their youth systems, only to sell them for profit. Would you want this in your league?

And the material point to all of this information is that in spite of what some pundits may say, the National Hockey League is moving in the correct direction. Regardless of his flaws, Gary Bettman ensured that this would be the case by holding out for linkage between player salaries and league revenue. The salary cap may hit the $60Million mark in the next few years, but it will only do so if the league’s fortunes continue to improve. And you, as a fan of any team, can cheer on your team and realistically dream of a championship. And after all, isn’t that the point?

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